Recently, the coal market has seen a tightening supply-demand balance, with coal prices once again surpassing 700 yuan per ton. Zhongtai Securities analysis indicates that on the supply side, production capacity releases have been constrained due to overproduction investigations in major producing regions and voluntary production cuts by coal mines ahead of the National Day holiday. The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau found that nearly one-third of local coal mines were overproducing, with some ordered to suspend operations for rectification. Additionally, affected by safety production policies, some private mines may reduce or halt production.

On the demand side, coal consumption in non-power sectors rebounded during the “Golden September and Silver October” period, while the steel industry maintained high pig iron output, driving coking coal demand. Port inventories continued to decline, with Qinhuangdao Port's coal stockpiles falling 7.96% week-on-week. Structural shortages of high-quality coal resources pushed prices higher. The upcoming autumn maintenance of the Daqin Railway is expected to further tighten port coal supply.

Thermal coal prices rose by 24 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coking coal saw a more significant increase, with the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port climbing 130 yuan/ton week-on-week. Zhongtai Securities believes the coal sector currently trades at low valuations, and coupled with expectations of improved supply and demand, its allocation value is prominent. It recommends focusing on high-elasticity targets such as Yankuang Energy and Shaanxi Coal Industry, as well as coking coal companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Coal.