No Blank Sailings, Still No Space: The East Coast South America Squeeze
No Blank Sailings, Still No Space: The East Coast South America Squeeze
Executive Summary
Carriers stopped cancelling whole voyages. They now skip ports. Shanghai and Ningbo lose the most calls, and ECSA booking lead time is back to 21 days.
Overview
Here's the thing. For most of September there is no traditional blank sailing programme on the Asia to Latin America trades. Capacity is still coming out, just through a different door. Carriers are dropping selective port calls instead of cancelling a whole voyage, so a string that used to call at five ports now calls at three or four. Shanghai and Ningbo are losing the most calls of any origin port. Put simply, the list is clean and the space is still gone.
Frankly, this is harder to plan around than a cancellation. A cancelled voyage shows up in one place and you rebook it. An omission shows up as a cut-off that quietly moves, and you find out when the truck is already booked. That is the difference.
Watch out for this one: the confirmation that matters now is the one with the load port on it, not the one with the vessel name.
Key Details
ZIM launched its Falcon service on 2026-09-18. The maiden sailing left Shanghai, reaches Rio Grande on 21 October and Santos on 31 October, for a transit of 43 days. Direct calls cover Rio Grande, Paranagua, Itajai, Santos and Rio de Janeiro, with Buenos Aires and Montevideo fed through Rio Grande.
It is one string. It is one string in a market that has been tight for two quarters.
Bottom line: a new service cools the rate. It does not fix the space. Maersk has had an East Coast South America peak season surcharge running since 20 August, and it is still in place through September.
Looking Ahead
Carriers are asking for 14 to 21 days of lead time on East Coast South America, and 10 to 14 days on Mexico and the West Coast. That is their own number, and it does not include the holidays. Mid-Autumn falls on 25 September and the National Day holiday runs 1 October to 7 October, with make-up working days on both sides. Plan around the holidays, not the calendar.
Book early. The catch is that everyone else is doing the same thing in the last week of September.
There is one more port to watch. Buenaventura is still recovering from the 10 August earthquake, and landslides on the Cali corridor are still restricting truck movement, so add a few days if your cargo goes inland in Colombia.
Implications
Third week of September, Shekou to the West Coast, ocean freight only and 40HQ: CMA at 6,244 USD to Buenaventura, Callao, San Antonio and Manzanillo, closing 26 September and sailing 28 September with a transit of 21 days; MSC at 6,100 USD to Buenaventura, Callao and San Antonio, closing 23 September; PIL at 5,700 USD to Guayaquil and Callao, and 5,500 USD to Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas.
Quote the surcharge on a separate line.
Otherwise you end up arguing with your client about a number that was never yours to defend, and that argument is not worth having.
Market Outlook
We expect the port omission pattern to hold through the Golden Week period. Shippers who lock space before 30 September will pay less in rollover and storage than those who wait for a rate correction that is unlikely to arrive before mid-October.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.