West Coast South America Rates Just Peaked
West Coast South America Rates Just Peaked
Executive Summary
Rates topped out in the first week of September and are stepping down. Here is what that changes for your October bookings.
Overview
The SCFI South America reading sat at US$8,953 per TEU on 4 September, up 3.3% on the week. That was the top of this run.
Three things moved since then. Extra loaders have run out of Ningbo for three weeks straight. The electric vehicle pipeline has gone quiet. And buyers simply stopped shipping at these numbers.
The demand side gave first. Factories ran the numbers, saw the rate, and waited. When your customer starts asking whether October is cheaper, the peak is already behind you.
Key Details
Santos came close to US$10,000 per TEU before it turned. The Panama draft limit is still binding, so heavy cargo out of there stays awkward and the effective capacity gain is small.
Watch out for weight caps when you quote a heavy box. That has not changed with the rate.
The catch is that fewer vessels can load to plan, so space still looks tight while prices fall. Do not read a tight space report as a rising market.
Looking Ahead
If you have flexible cargo, the next 2 to 3 weeks are your window. Rates should keep easing into late September, and then the national holiday blank sailings will put a floor under them.
Here is the thing. That floor will not hold for long. Carriers are already trimming October capacity, and a holiday week pulls sailings straight out of the schedule.
So move flexible cargo now, and lock the must-ship volume before the holiday. That is the whole plan.
Implications
Check the draft limit for East Coast and get the weight cap confirmed by the carrier in writing before you quote.
Ask for the sailing schedule with the port rotation in writing. A verbal confirmation does not survive a blank sailing.
Bottom line: this is a good month to ship flexible cargo, and a bad month to gamble on a further fall.
Market Outlook
Our view: the downside is limited to this month. Carriers are already trimming October capacity, and we expect a general rate increase to be tested for the second half of October once holiday volumes clear. If you have volume you can pull forward, late September is the cheapest slot you will get before the end of the year.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.