The global shipping industry is once again keeping a close eye on the Panama Canal.

The Panama Canal Authority has scheduled maintenance on the waterway at the Gatun Locks from June 9 to 17. During this period, the number of daily transit slots will be reduced to 16, and some vessels will need to divert to alternative routes, which may affect overall transit efficiency.

Under normal circumstances, this might be considered routine maintenance. However, the canal is already experiencing some congestion.

Data shows that the average waiting time at the Panama Canal has reached nearly 48 hours, a significant increase from the beginning of the year.

Due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, many energy shipping routes have been adjusted, with a concentration of vessels entering the Panama Canal. This, combined with a maintenance window, has increased pressure on the canal.

The most noticeable impact so far has been on the LPG shipping market.

Some institutions have pointed out that effective VLGC capacity is tightening, with freight rates on routes related to the U.S. Gulf continuing to rise, and daily charter rates approaching the historical high of $185,000.

Once congestion occurs in the canal, the impact is often more than just “waiting a few extra days.” Extended voyage times, slower fleet turnover, and increased fuel costs will gradually feed through to freight rates.

If waiting times continue to increase, some shipping companies may opt to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, though this would entail longer voyages and higher costs.

In addition to the congestion itself, there are also weather factors to consider.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a high probability of an El Niño event in the second half of this year. During previous severe El Niño events, reduced rainfall in Central America and lower water levels in Lake Gatun have led to navigation restrictions in the Panama Canal.

Although the Panama Canal Authority has stated that it currently has no plans to impose further restrictions on traffic, market sentiment has not yet fully eased.

Recently, the auction price for priority passage through the Panama Canal has risen to $4 million per vessel, setting a new record high.

To some extent, this indicates that many shipowners have already begun paying for “time.”

Future transit conditions at the Panama Canal will likely continue to influence the direction of the shipping market. It is worth keeping a close eye on subsequent changes in freight rates and shipping schedules.