Since the evening of February 28, Iran's Revolutionary Guard has imposed a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz—not only issuing frequent warnings against passage but also deploying naval vessels to enforce the closure, forcing oil tankers to halt operations in place. Shipping data charts show clusters of red dots collectively frozen in position, indicating a situation far more severe than previous verbal threats.

This waterway, just 33 kilometers wide, handles nearly 20% of the world's crude oil and 99% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Disruption would trigger immediate repercussions: Asian spot LNG prices would surge 45% overnight, with ports clogged by undeliverable cargo; Brent crude would spike past $280 per barrel during trading, triggering circuit breakers; diesel prices would nearly triple, rapidly straining industrial supply chains in Europe and America, with sectors like chemicals, automotive, and fertilizers facing imminent crises.

Routing around the Cape of Good Hope? Costs skyrocket—supertankers face an extra 18 days and $1.2 million in expenses, while war risk premiums surge 30-fold, exceeding freight rates. Though U.S. aircraft carriers are nearby, the narrow strait limits maneuverability, and mine-clearing speeds lag far behind laying mines, making military intervention highly risky.

Multiple European countries have explicitly banned shipping, prompting Chinese shipowners to urgently activate a two-hour positioning mechanism. Meanwhile, the China-Pakistan and China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railways entered full operational readiness overnight, quietly activating alternative routes.

Iran, without stipulating conditions or deadlines, has plunged the Gulf's six nations into chaos through action alone. The International Maritime Organization convened three times, yet no one dared to mention “mandatory passage.”

On the surface, it remains “cautious passage,” but in reality—all ships have halted.