The global consolidated shipping market remains sluggish, with freight rates continuing to decline. The industry is awaiting an opportunity for a rebound.
The global container shipping market remained sluggish due to weak shipments before the National Day Golden Week. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on September 26, the SCFI index fell 6.98% to 1114.52 points, marking a four-week decline. Freight rates on the four major shipping routes generally fell: the US West Coast line fell to $1,460/FEU (down 10.76% week-on-week), the US East Coast line fell to $2,385/FEU (down 6.73% week-on-week), the European line fell below $1,000 to $971/TEU (down 7.7% week-on-week), and the Mediterranean line fell to $1,485/TEU (down 9.34% week-on-week). In the near-ocean shipping lines, freight rates in Southeast Asia fell slightly by $3 to $418/TEU, while prices on the Japan-Korea route remained unchanged.
Industry insiders predict that the rebound of freight rates needs to pay attention to two nodes: the demand for Christmas replenishment from late October to early November, and the preparation of goods before the Spring Festival from the end of December to mid-January. Currently, the spot prices of the US West and European lines are lower than the long-term contract prices and close to the cost line. The imbalance between supply and demand is mainly due to insufficient export volume from China. The annual contract negotiation for the European line is imminent, and companies such as Hapag-Lloyd plan to push up the freight rates of the US line to $2,000/FEU in mid-October.
In the fourth quarter, due to the off-season in Europe and the United States, the pending tariffs between China and the United States, and geopolitical influences, the market outlook is under pressure. The subsequent trend needs to be observed based on the ruling of the US court on Trump's tariff policy.
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