19 Sailings Cut for Golden Week, Only 5 Replacements Offered
19 Sailings Cut for Golden Week, Only 5 Replacements Offered
Executive Summary
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have published 19 blank sailings. Five alternates came with them.
| 11% |
| 67% |
| 52% |
| 33% |
| 15% |
Overview
Here's the thing nobody puts in the headline. The cut list is long, and the replacement list is short. On the transpacific, Maersk blanked TP8 640E (Busan, Oct 9) and 644W (Los Angeles, 11-01), plus TP12 641E (Ningbo, 10-09) and 647W (Newark, 11-18). Hapag-Lloyd withdrew WC2 640E (Shanghai, Oct 10), AA7 (Ningbo, 10-01, vessel Wan Hai A13) and US2 641E (Ningbo, 10-07). MSC cut Orient GO640N in week 40 and Pearl GO641N in week 41. That is nine voyages gone.
One alternate came back: Hapag-Lloyd US1, the Maersk Shams, sailing from Haiphong on 10-02 with an extra call at Norfolk. Nine cut, one added. Do not bet on it.
If you have US cargo booked for early October, ask your carrier agent for the alternate today. The system will not tell you first. Watch out for the West Coast dates in particular.
Put simply, the replacement rate on this trade is 11%. On the Mediterranean it is 67%. Your booking desk should treat these as two different markets this week.
Key Details
The European trades come with named alternates. Hapag-Lloyd blanked NE2 641W from Shanghai on Oct 10; you can move to NE3 (Maersk Cambridge, Shanghai 10-06) or NE1 (Al Nefud, Shanghai 10-10). On the Mediterranean, SE3 640W from Qingdao on Sep 28 and SE1 641W from Ningbo on 10-08 both go dark, but SE4 (Berlin Maersk, Qingdao 10-01) and SE3 (Mayview Maersk, Ningbo 10-12) are open. Frankly, that is a workable swap list.
Maersk also cut three Asia-Europe westbound sailings: AE15 from Qingdao on 09-28, AE12 from Ningbo on 10-08 and AE1 from Shanghai on 10-10. MSC took out Jade GJ639W in week 39, Swan FW640W and Britannia QB640W in week 40, and Lion GL641W in week 41. Seven blanked, two named alternates.
The catch is timing. Qingdao on 09-28 is the first voyage to disappear, and that is 3 days away. If your boxes are on it, move them now.
Looking Ahead
Drewry puts the wider picture in numbers. Between 09-14 and 10-18, weeks 38 to 42, the three main east-west trades have 79 blank sailings out of 721 scheduled voyages, or 11%. Transpacific eastbound accounts for 52% of those blanks, Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean 33%, transatlantic 15%. Published blanks for weeks 38 to 41 jumped from 39 to 70 in a single week.
Blank sailings are a joint decision, not one carrier having a bad month. Nobody leaves a berth open for a competitor's customer. Bottom line: the trade with the deepest cuts gets the fewest alternates, and that is exactly what the numbers show.
What should you do with this? Three things. Move anything on the 09-28 Qingdao sailings today. Rebook Europe and Med cargo onto the named alternates above. For the transpacific, call each carrier one by one, because there is no published list to read.
Market Outlook
Our read: treat the transpacific as fully committed through the first half of October and price the delay into your customer quotes now. The Europe and Med trades will absorb the cuts through named alternates, so the risk there is schedule slip, not lost space.JETWAY Supply Chain is your execution partner on the ground in China — based in Tianjin, licensed as an NVOCC (MOT) and a member of CIFA, FIATA and WCA. We handle special cargo and compliance (dangerous goods, chemicals, batteries) across ocean, air, rail and road, and we pre-check your documents before the box is stuffed so your filing clears the first time. Send us your next booking and we will run the checks above against your sailing date. Request a quote.