As of July 3, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reached 3,326.87 points, marking its tenth consecutive week of gains. This represents a 77.41% increase from the 1,875.26 points recorded on April 24, bringing the index back to its highest level since the pandemic.

This round of price increases has not been uniform, with significant divergence across different routes.

Rates on U.S.-bound routes have risen the most sharply. Rates for the U.S. West Coast route are approximately $7,500 per FEU, while those for the U.S. East Coast range from $8,900 to $9,000 per FEU. Following the implementation of the GRI rate increase on July 1, rates rose by an additional $1,300 to $1,500. Throughout June, capacity was extremely tight, with overbooking and container rejection becoming the norm.

There is only one key factor driving the U.S. route: the tariff grace period. The current 10% temporary tariff on global imports to the U.S. expires on July 24, and the industry widely expects tariffs to be raised after that date, citing reasons such as Section 301 investigations. Shippers are rushing to ship their cargo ahead of the deadline, and the uncertainty surrounding tariff policy has directly pushed freight rates to high levels.

Rates on the Europe route are also rising, but at a much slower pace. Spot rates have climbed to between $4,300 and $4,500, and CMA CGM and MSC are implementing new FAK rates starting today. However, some carriers are already planning to lower rates on the Europe route in the near future; with relatively ample capacity, the rate increases are significantly lower than those on the U.S. route.

Rates on South American routes, on the other hand, are pulling back. Rates on the Santos route have fallen to $7,230 per TEU, a 9.28% decline from previous levels. The earlier sharp surge was driven by multiple factors—including tariff hikes in Brazil and Argentina, outdated port equipment, and labor strikes—but the situation has now cooled somewhat.

For exporters, the most pressing issue right now is this: while there may still be profit margins when orders are accepted, those margins could be eroded by freight rates once the cargo is loaded. With rates rising by several hundred to over a thousand dollars per container in just over a week, low-value, bulky goods (such as furniture and building materials) are being hit the hardest. Companies with stable cargo volumes are advised to secure space and negotiate long-term contracts as soon as possible; those booking on a spot basis will have no choice but to passively absorb the rising costs.