The U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, and I had expected the Strait of Hormuz to be “unblocked” immediately. The reality, however, was stark—only 10 ships dared to pass through in two days, and all of them were small vessels or ships linked to Iran. Large oil tankers and major shipping companies? Not a single one was seen.

The British maritime analysis firm Wenward pointed out that currently, all vessels must “report” to the Iranian side in advance; those without approval may even be warned to “watch out for a beating.” This isn’t free navigation—it’s practically “appointment-based clearance.”

Even more disheartening is that approximately 3,200 ships are still queuing on the western side of the strait, 800 of which are oil tankers and cargo ships. Many vessels have simply turned off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to go “stealth mode,” making the entire Gulf shipping scene resemble a spy thriller.

To avoid risks, many companies have opted to sail around the Cape of Good Hope—a move that has stretched a 25-day voyage to 41 days and driven freight rates up by 25%. This strategy can be described as “trading time for safety and paying for peace of mind.”

Interestingly, ports on the east coast of Oman and the United Arab Emirates have suddenly seen a surge in orders, becoming new logistics hubs.

The industry widely believes that the coming days will be a critical observation period. If no complications arise by April 14, major shipping companies may gradually resume operations. However, even if everything goes smoothly and global energy transportation returns to normal, it will still take several weeks or even months.

Ultimately, a ceasefire is only the first step; rebuilding trust is the most difficult hurdle to overcome.

We fear not rough seas, but changing rules.

For now, everyone is still waiting for those “new rules” to take effect.