On January 20, CMA CGM announced on its official website that its FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes would resume rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. These three routes had been among the first container lines to resume transiting the Suez Canal in 2025, but now they are reverting to the longer southern route due to “complex and uncertain international circumstances.”

Previously, many analysts believed that with the Houthi rebels declaring a three-month ceasefire, the Red Sea-Suez Canal corridor would gradually return to normal. Last week, Maersk did indeed reintroduce its MECL route into the Red Sea, a move once seen as an industry bellwether. After all, Maersk has always been conservative in its safety assessments, and its actions are often interpreted as signals of stabilizing conditions.

However, CMA CGM's decision has clearly dampened such optimistic expectations. Particularly over the past ten days, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, with the US and Iran exchanging tough rhetoric. Iran has even hinted at potentially targeting commercial shipping—a significant concern given its longstanding role as a key backer of the Houthi rebels.

Philip Damas, Managing Director of shipping consultancy Drewry, pointed out that the decision to return to the Suez Canal route directly impacts this year's global shipping capacity allocation, freight rate trends, transit times, and even fuel costs. While CMA CGM's move is an isolated case, it reflects leading shipping companies' continued high vigilance toward geopolitical risks.

Ultimately, shipping companies aren't unwilling to take shortcuts—they simply dare not gamble. Until the Red Sea, this “golden waterway,” achieves lasting stability, taking the longer route may prove the safest choice. For now, a full return to Asia-Europe shipping routes will likely require further waiting.