The global container shipping market saw a significant rebound toward year-end. According to the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), freight rates on Asia-Europe routes rose 1% last week to $2,742 per FEU, marking a 12% increase from mid-December and reaching the highest level since the peak season ended. The Asia-Mediterranean route surged 4% to $4,004 per FEU, marking the first time since July that rates surpassed the $4,000 threshold and representing a 20% increase from early December.

Freightos Research Director Judah Levine noted that this surge is primarily driven by the early start of Lunar New Year stockpiling combined with ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, forcing vessels to detour around the Cape of Good Hope and extend their voyages. He anticipates that freight rates on major eastbound and westbound routes will likely remain elevated or even strengthen further in the weeks leading up to the holiday.

In contrast, trans-Pacific routes saw more moderate increases. Since mid-December, rates on the US West Coast route rose 9% to $2,145 per FEU, while the US East Coast route climbed 15% to $3,364 per FEU. However, Levine cautioned that with the 2026 Chinese New Year falling relatively late on February 17, short-term fluctuations or adjustments may occur before demand truly rebounds.

Despite overall contraction in U.S. maritime imports and ongoing trade war pressures suppressing freight volumes, global cargo shipments still recorded a 4% increase in early Q4. This growth was primarily driven by robust Chinese exports to Europe, Africa, and Latin America, reflecting initial success in diversifying its trading partners.

Looking ahead to 2026, S&P Global forecasts that U.S. imports will decline by another 2%, marking the second consecutive year of contraction and creating a rare “double-dip cycle” unseen in nearly two decades. However, organizations such as BIMCO maintain that despite weakness in the U.S. market, global maritime shipping demand will continue to grow.